_checkonchain

This site presents the latest and greatest in on-chain analysis and the sexiest charts on the internet for Bitcoin and Decred. These models are pure signal, open source and provide exactly zero guarantees of accuracy and validity. Use at your own risk. All data sourced from a combination of glassnode.com, coinmetrics.io and dcrdata.

For more information, please contact @_checkmatey_ or visit https://www.readyset.vision/plans/124470 for the On-chain Jedi Masterclass Series to learn about how each metric is developed, applied and deployed for edge.


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If you find this site, research and analysis valuable, you could buy this random dude on the internet a beer.
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XMR: 48ogSz5LicNZhq6p1FBaMMHaTE1rPmi78TerD6PwBWfMJxCn2Aaxn4aRMDUBAxN8A9bQA491ibx6hUZVCr6jdUQX4BUifDE
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Bitcoin Bitcoin Metrics



Magic Lines

Simple but powerful pricing models for the Corn! Don't underestimate them.

Mayer Multiple

Pricing model and oscillator derived from the 200-DMA

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Magic Lines
(Recent)

Bitcoin's magic lines: 128D, 200D, 128W and 200W

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Magic Lines
(Full History)

Bitcoin's magic lines: 128D, 200D, 128W and 200W

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Stock-to-Flow Models (Valuation)

Comparison between @100TrillionUSD and Checkmate's S2F Models. PlanB's is taken from the original paper, Checkmate calculates log-log regression to Market Cap on every daily closing price.

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Stock-to-Flow Models (Pricing)

As per S2F Valuation model adjusted to present as coin price.

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Investor Tool

Picking tops and bottoms using the long term 2yr Moving Average after @PositiveCrypto. Chart is supplemented with high conviction bottom/accumulation 128W and 200W moving averages.

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Mayer Multiple (By Block Height)

Pricing model and oscillator derived from the 200-DMA

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Realised Value

Tracking aggregate market cost basis, profit + loss.

Realised Cap + MVRV
(Valuation)

Total value stored in Bitcoin

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Realised Price + MVRV
(Pricing)

Aggregate break-even pricing model

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Unrealised Profit & Loss

Oscillator for net aggregate PnL

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Market-Realised Gradient Oscillator (14-day)

Momentum oscillator for swing trades

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Market-Realised Gradient Oscillator (140-day)

Momentum oscillator for long term trades

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Probability Histograms

Probability based on historical occurence

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Spent Output Age Histogram

Probability of spent output age brackets based on historical occurence

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Mining Metrics + Supply Stress

Tracking opportunities in miner stress, income and block-times

Difficulty Ribbon
(Valuation)

Fair value estimate and miner supply side stress

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Difficulty Ribbon
(Pricing)

Price levels based on mining metrics

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Puell Multiple

Mining income stress oscillator

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Block Subsidy Model
(Valuation)

Valuing monetary premium

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Block Subsidy Model
(Pricing)

Pricing monetary premium

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Mining Pulse

Mining block-time stress oscillator

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Performance Metrics

Tracking perfrormance and settlement metrics for Bitcoin.

NVT + RVT Ratios

Ratio of valuation to on-chain activity.

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NVT + RVT Ratios Adjusted for Free Float Supply

Ratio of valuation to on-chain activity adjusted for free-float supply

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Value Stored per byte

Ratio Market Cap, Realised Cap and Cumulative USD Settled to total Blockchain size. This measures 'value density' of the chain.

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Metcalfe's Law Models
(Valuation)

Log-Log regression models considered for on-chain activity to estimate 'fair value'. Model considers Transaction Counts, Transaction Volume (USD) and Active Addresses.

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Metcalfe's Law Models
(Pricing)

Metcalfe Law models as per Valuation adjusted by supply to present equivalent pricing levels.

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Cycle Metrics

Following the cyclical behaviour of the Bitcoin market.

Cycle since Market Low

Price performance since the bear market low.

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Cycle since Market Top

Price performance since the bull market blow-off top.

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Cycle related to Halvings

Price relative to the Bitcoin Halving.

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Golden Ratio Multipler
(Full History)

Cyclical support and resistance based on Fibbonacci multiples of the 350DMA. Metric originally presented by @PositiveCrypto.

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Golden Ratio Multipler
(Recent History)

Zoomed in version of the Golden Ratio Multipler by @PositiveCrypto

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Golden Cross Bull-Bear
(+ Sats per Dolla!)

Simple cycle metric showing bull-bear bias based on the 50-200-day MA cross. Includes additional salt for fiat maximalists showing mass debasement in sats per dollar.

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Bitcoin Decred Metrics




Fair Value Models

Estimating a fair value for atoms

Stock-to-Flow Model
(Valuation)

Stock-to-flow regression model to market cap

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Stock-to-Flow Model
(Pricing)

Stock-to-flow regression model to price

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Stock-to-flow residual oscillator

Statistical distance from S2F model mean

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Mayer Multiple

Oscillator based off the 200-DMA for support and resistance

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Probability Histogram
(Oscillators)

Mayer, MVRV, S2F, Puell and 142-day ticket sum

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Probability Histogram
(TVWAP)

Ticket weighted volume averaged price

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Realised Value

Psychological mean and recency bias for Cred-Heads

Realised + MVRV Model A
(USD, Valuation)

Decred realised valuation priced in USD

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Realised + MVRV Model B
(USD, Pricing)

Decred realised price in USD

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Market-Realised Oscillator
(28-day)

Momentum oscillator for short term trades

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Realised + MVRV Model C
(BTC, Valuation)

Decred realised valuation priced in BTC

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Realised + MVRV Model D
(BTC, Pricing)

Decred realised priced in BTC

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Market-Realised Gradient Oscillator
(142-day)

Momentum oscillator for long term trades

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Unrealised Profit & Loss

Oscillator for net aggregate PnL

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Block Subsidy Models

Aggregate income stress levels for miners, stakers and contractors

Block Subsidy Model A
(USD, Valuation)

Cumulative BTC cashflows for seeking supply-side income stress and bottom formation

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Block Subsidy Model B
(USD, Pricing)

Pricing levels in BTC for cumulative network supply-side cashflows

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Block Subsidy Model C
(BTC, Valuation)

Cumulative BTC cashflows for seeking supply-side income stress and bottom formation

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Block Subsidy Model D
(BTC, Pricing)

Pricing levels in BTC for cumulative network supply-side cashflows

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Mining Metrics

Assessing stress in the Decred mining market

Difficulty Ribbon
(Valuation)

Tracking miner stress and rig expansions

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Difficulty Ribbon
(Pricing)

Tracking miner stress and rig expansions

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Puell Multiple

Assessing miner income against yearly average

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Mining Pulse

Using block times to monitor mining markets

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Ticket Metrics

Stakeholders are bullish...but how bullish!?

28-day Ticket Funding Rate

Rate of buying first ticket

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56-day Ticket Funding Rate

Rate of buying second ticket

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142-day Ticket Funding Rate

Rate of perpetual ticket buying

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28-day Strongest Hand

Short term ticket volume weighted volatility bands

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56-day Strongest Hand

Mid term ticket volume weighted volatility bands

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142-day Strongest Hand

Long term ticket volume weighted volatility bands

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TVWAP (Valuation)

Stakeholder ticket buying weighted valuation

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TVWAP (Pricing)

Stakeholder ticket buying weighted pricing

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Hodler Conversion Rate

Relative volume of ticket to non-ticket transactions

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142-day Ticket Sum

Total USD value bound to the chain over 142-days

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Performance Metrics

How is Decred performing under the hood?

Onchain Transfer Volumes

Onchain volume split into Regular, Tickets and CoinShuffle++

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Coins Moved Adjusted for Supply

Sum of coins moved relative to supply over period

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NVT and RVT Ratio

Ratio of network valuation to daily transaction volume

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Tickets and Staking

Ticket price and total DCR value staked

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CoinShuffle++

Privacy mixing volumes

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DCRDEX

Atomic swap transaction volumes (NOTE:STATIC DATA)

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Value Stored per byte

Ratio Market Cap, Realised Cap and Cumulative USD Settled to total Blockchain size. This measures 'value density' of the chain.

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Staking ROI in DCR

Presents the estimated staking reward in DCR for owners of 1 to 5x tickets alongside estimated future ticket prices.

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Staking ROI in USD

Presents the estimated monthly staking reward in USD for a single ticket for a set of DCR/USD price assumptions.

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Supply Dilution

Calculates the idealised supply dilution of stakers and premine participants assuming perfect and persistent staking (i.e. maximum plausible premine holdings).

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Bitcoin Monero Metrics



Cyclical Patterns

Well, thats the thing with a private chain...you can't see anything!

Transaction Counts vs
Date

Comparing transaction counts over time.

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Transaction Counts vs
Protocol Age

Comparing transaction counts against days alive.

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Transaction Counts vs
Coin Age

Comparing transaction counts against proportion of 2050 mined supply

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Price Cycle Comparison
(vs Supply Age)

Comparing XMR, DCR and XMR valuation to coin supply age.

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Price Cycle Comparison
(vs Protocol Age)

Comparing XMR, DCR and XMR valuation to protocol lifespan.

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Horizen Horizen Metrics



Performance Metrics

Overall performance of the Horizen blockchain

Node Counts

Overall Horizen Node Counts

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Supply Dynamics

Total issued supply and supply staked, transparent and shielded.

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Transaction and Exchange Volumes

Comparing transaction volumesn-chain and to exchanges.

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Block Subsidy Model
(Valuation)

Block Subsidy Models considering network Valuation.

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Block Subsidy Model
(Pricing)

Block Subsidy Models considering pricing.

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Bitcoin Research Papers



Decred: Unforgeably Scarce, Hyper-Secure

Sound Money means Security, Finality and Scarcity.
Unforgeably Secure
Decred: Unforgeably Scarce, Hyper-Secure

A detailed study into unforgeable costliness, blockchain security and transaction finality assurances provided by Decred and Bitcoin.

Research Paper

Decred Security Curve

Demonstrating the exponential benefits to blockchain security offered by Hybrid PoW/PoS Consensus.

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Daily Cost to Attack (A)

Model A: Daily block reward as a proxy for daily attack cost (excludes ticket and ASIC CAPEX).

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Finality Ratio

Taking the ratio between Decred and Bitcoin security under various attack assumptions to compare finality.

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Unforgeable Costliness

Compare the total unforgeable costliness of Decred and Bitcoin over history (cumulative security spend).

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Daily Cost to Attack (B)

Model B: Daily block reward as a proxy for daily attack cost (includes ticket CAPEX, Not ASICs).

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Compare Unforgeable Costliness

Compare cumulative security spend to top PoW coins (Model A, excludes PoW and PoS CAPEX).

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Decred: The Resilient Stronghold

A detailed audit of Decred onchain performance.
Unforgeably Secure
Decred: The Resilient Stronghold

A detailed audit of Decred onchain performance.

Research Paper

Block Reward Fee Ratio

Miners: Comparing the fee ratio and long term security viability for Bitcoin and Decred .

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Cumulative Settled Value (USD)

Users: Cumulative USD value settled onchain (denominated both in USD and native units).

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Transaction Counts

Users: Presents the daily and cumulative transaction counts for Decred against protocol age (days since genesis).

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Miner Cumulative Income

Miners: Cumulative PoW miner income from block-subsity and fees.

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Daily Native Units Settled (DCR)

Users: Presents the daily native units settled onchain in regular and ticket transactions.

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Mean + Median Tx Size

Users: Presents Median + Mean transaction size denominated in native units against protocol age (days since genesis).

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Miner Hashrate Growth

Miners: Presents logarithmic growth of proof-of-work mining hashrate + difficulty.

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