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Pricing Models Profit/Loss Network Stats Supply Dynamics Mining Metrics Technicals/Volatility
A collection of the OG On-chain pricing models.
The Realized Price and MVRV for tracking cycle extremes.
Track periods when the STH cohgort are holding extreme unrealized profit or loss.
The classic 200-day moving average strategy.
Models using transaction volumes to estimate fair value.
Tracking the average cost basis of HODLers vs Speculators
Tracking macro tops and bottoms using the 2yr moving average.
Tracking cross-overs between the 111DMA and 350DMA x2.
Oscillators monitoring the relative Unrealized Profit/Loss held.
Tracking the volume weighted average price by each yearly cohort.
A suite of Bitcoin's most important simple moving averages.
Trend analysis of the classic MVRV Ratio, seeking top and bottom heavy markets.
Net Realised Profit/Loss occurring across the network as a measure of net capital flows.
Extreme 30-day shifts in the Realised cap.
Tool to track impending volatility via relative capital flows.
Analysis of how much capital is needed to make a $1 change in the Market Cap.
A variant of the popular SOPR indicator which also considers coin volume.
A tool to spot acceleration of Profit or Loss dominant regimes.
Momentum within the active addresses as a proxy for the Bitcoin userbase.
Momentum within the number of confirmed transactions mined into blocks.
Momentum of coinday value destroyed to gauge economic activity.
Tool to track meaningful upticks in Fee Revenue paid to Miners over 1y to 4yr periods.
The total number of Shrimp, Crabs, Fish, Sharks and Whale Addresses.
There will only ever be 21M Bitcoin.
Newly minted supply issued to miners.
Breakdown of supply into old, young and lost cohorts.
Monitor the 30-day change in supply aged 6m or more.
A tool to track when smart money investors are exiting during peak bull markets.
Tool for tracking inversions in the 30D and 60D hashrate averages.
The original oscillator for tracking mining profitability and income stress.
Analysing changes in block interval to assess hashrate expansion and contraction.
Monitoring the USD and BTC revenue per Exahash.
Tracking the total balance and 30-day balance change for miners.
A log-log regression model between Difficulty and Market Cap.
A curve fit model considering the difficulty input per unit of BTC produced (by @paulewaulpaul).
Tracking the total drawdown for Price, Market Cap and Realized Cap.
Assessing the realized volatility of Bitcoin over several timeframes.
Oscillators showing the price performance over 90, 30, and 7-day periods.
The classic RSI-14 Overbought / Oversold indicator.
Tracking volatility using range contraction/expansion.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator.
The Bollinger Bands using a 20-day period +/- 2 standard deviations.
Tracking volatility using contraction/expansion of trading ranges.
How many days have Bitcoin prices been in the green?.
The interest rate paid by leveraged traders in futures markets.