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Pricing Models Profit/Loss Network Stats Supply Dynamics Mining Metrics Technicals/Volatility

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Bitcoin Bitcoin Pricing Models

Simple but powerful pricing models for the Corn! Don't underestimate them.

On-chain Originals

A collection of the OG On-chain pricing models.

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Realized Price and MVRV

The Realized Price and MVRV for tracking cycle extremes.

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Short-Term Holder MVRV Indicator

Track periods when the STH cohgort are holding extreme unrealized profit or loss.

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The Mayer Multiple

The classic 200-day moving average strategy.

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NVT Price Model

Models using transaction volumes to estimate fair value.

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Old/Young Supply Cost Basis

Tracking the average cost basis of HODLers vs Speculators

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The Investor Tool

Tracking macro tops and bottoms using the 2yr moving average.

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Pi Cycle Top Indicator

Tracking cross-overs between the 111DMA and 350DMA x2.

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Old/Young NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

Oscillators monitoring the relative Unrealized Profit/Loss held.

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Yearly Cost Basis Models

Tracking the volume weighted average price by each yearly cohort.

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Bitcoin's Magic Lines

A suite of Bitcoin's most important simple moving averages.

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True Market Mean and AVIV Ratio

Our best estimate of the true market cost basis, leveraging the power of Cointime Economics.

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Bitcoin Profit/Loss Metrics

Metrics tracking the profit and loss across the network as a measure of sentiment, positioning, and capital flows.

MVRV Momentum

Trend analysis of the classic MVRV Ratio, seeking top and bottom heavy markets.

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Realised Profit/Loss

Net Realised Profit/Loss occurring across the network as a measure of net capital flows.

USD » BTC » Relative »

Realised Cap Net Position Change

Extreme 30-day shifts in the Realised cap.

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Net Sell-side Risk Ratio

Tool to track impending volatility via relative capital flows.

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Liquidity Capital Change Ratios

Analysis of how capital and liquidity flows impact price and market valuation.

Model A » Model B » Model C »

Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

The realised profit/loss multiple capturing average profit taking and loss taking events.

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Net Realised Profit/Loss Momentum

A tool to spot acceleration of Profit or Loss dominant regimes.

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Triple MVRV Indicator

Comparing MVRV, STH-MVRV and the AVIV Ratio cost basis models.

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MVRV Gradient Oscillators

Indicators tracking market momentum and energy over different timeframes.

30D » 90D » 180D » 360D » All »

MVRV Z-Score Ribbon

A suite of Z-Score measures for MVRV covering 1 to 4yr periods.

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Capital Rotation

Assessing capital rotation flows using Realized Cap and Stablecoins Supplies.

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AVIV Gradient Oscillators

Faster and more responsive than the MVRV Gradient Oscillators using Cointime Economics.

30D » 90D » 180D » 360D » All »

Bitcoin Network Adoption Metrics

Tools to assess the growing rates of adoption for the Bitcoin network.

Active Address Momentum

Momentum within the active addresses as a proxy for the Bitcoin userbase.

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Transaction Momentum

Momentum within the number of confirmed transactions mined into blocks.

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Transfer Volume Momentum

Momentum within the volume settled by the Bitcoin network within confirm transactions.

Total Volume » Exchange Inflows »

Coinday Value Destroyed Momentum

Momentum of coinday value destroyed to gauge economic activity.

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Miner Fee Revenue

Analysing the on-chain transaction fees paid to miners.


Transfer Volumes

Tracking the total transfer volume settled by the Bitcoin network.


UTXOs Created and Destroyed

Total number of UTXOs created and destroyed each day.


Fee Revenue Ribbon

Tool to track meaningful upticks in Fee Revenue paid to Miners over 1y to 4yr periods.

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Address Count by Cohort

The total number of Shrimp, Crabs, Fish, Sharks and Whale Addresses.

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Bitcoin Supply Dynamics Metrics

Metrics describing the supply dynamics of the Bitcoin network.

Circulating Supply

There will only ever be 21M Bitcoin.

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Newly minted supply issued to miners.

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Supply Breadown

Compare the relative volume of supply.

Absolute » Relative »

The HODL Waves

Breakdown of supply into age bands.

Absolute » Relative »

Wallet Waves

Breakdown of supply into wallet size bands.

Absolute » Relative »

Supply Older than 1yr+

Breakdowmn of supply which has crossed the 1yr age threshold.

Absolute » Relative »

Old, Young and Probably Lost

Breakdown of supply into old, young and lost cohorts.

Absolute » Relative »

Old Supply Net Position Change

Monitor the 30-day change in supply aged 6m or more.

Absolute » Relative »

Revived and Maturing Supply 6m+

Tools to track the volume of supply Spent/Revived vs Maturing by age band.

Revived (Abs) » Revived (Rel) »
Maturing (Abs) » Maturing (Rel) »

Spent Supply Binary indicator

A tool to track when smart money investors are exiting during peak bull markets.

Absolute »

Supply metrics comparing the balance change of wallet cohorts to the daily issuance over 30-day and 90-day periods.

Retail Holders
(Under 100 BTC)

30-day » 90-day »

High Net Worth

30-day » 90-day »

Sharks and Whales

30-day » 90-day »

Whales and Exchanges

30-day » 90-day »

Bitcoin Mining Metrics

Tracking the production side of Bitcoin via performance and income stress metrics for miners.

Hashrate Ribbons

Tool for tracking inversions in the 30D and 60D hashrate averages.

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Puell Multiple

The original oscillator for tracking mining profitability and income stress.

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Mining Pulse

Analysing changes in block interval to assess hashrate expansion and contraction.

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Hashprice and Miner Revenue

Monitoring the USD and BTC revenue per Exahash.

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Miner Balances

Tracking the total balance and 30-day balance change for miners.

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Mining metrics associated with estimating the all-in-sustaining-cost of production for BTC.

Difficulty Regression Model

A log-log regression model between Difficulty and Market Cap.

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Difficulty per Issuance Model

A curve fit model considering the difficulty input per unit of BTC produced (by @paulewaulpaul).

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Profitable Mining Days

Estimating the number of proffitable days, showing just how perfectly balanced PoW mining is.

Profitable Days » Revenue vs Cost »

Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Volatility

Analysis of the market performance using classic technical analysis tools.

Drawdowns Corrections and Rally Strength

Tracking market drawdowns from ATH, in bull market corrections, and bear market rallies.

From ATH » Bull Dips » Bear Rallies »

Cycle Performance vs Halvings, Tops and Bottoms

Comparing the performance since the Halving, Cycle Top, and Low.

Halving » Cycle Top » Cycle Low »

Quarterly, Monthly, and Weekly ROI

Oscillators showing the price performance over 90, 30, and 7-day periods.

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Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands using a 20-day period +/- 2 standard deviations.

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Realized Volatility

Assessing the realized volatility of Bitcoin over several timeframes.

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Price Range Low/High

Tracking volatility using contraction/expansion of trading ranges.

7-day » 30-day » 90-day »

Relative Strength Index 14

The classic RSI-14 Overbought / Oversold indicator.

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Stochastic Oscillator

Tracking volatility using range contraction/expansion.

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The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator.

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Choppiness Index

Technical indicator tracking trending and consolidating markets.

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Sharpe Ratio Comparison

Comparing the Sharpe Ratio of Bitcoin to TradFi and crypto assets.

TradFi » Crypto »

CAGR Comparison

Comparing the 4yr CAGR of Bitcoin vs TradFi and crypto Assets.

TradFi » Crypto »

Profitable Trading Days

How many days have Bitcoin prices been in the green?.

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Market Dominance Measures

A series of methodologies for measuring market dominance.

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Monthly Price Performance

Table breakdown of monthly price performance by year.

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Stablecoins Stablecoins

Analysing the behaviour of the major USD denominated stablecoins.

Aggregate Supply

Assessing the total outstanding supply of USD stablecoins.

Absolute » Relative »

Net Position Change

Capital flows into Stablecoins relative to major assets.

Stablecoins » Major Assets »

Volume Dominance

Comparing the on-chain transfer volume dominance of stablecoins.

Absolute » Relative »

HODL Waves

Breakdowns of Stablecoin Supply by HODLed Age Size.

Absolute » Relative »

Wealth Distribution

Breakdowns of Stablecoin Supply by wallet Size.

Absolute » Relative »

Transaction Dominance

Comparing the on-chain transaction count dominance of stablecoins.

Absolute » Relative »