This site presents the latest and greatest in on-chain analysis and the sexiest charts on the internet for Bitcoin and Decred. These models are pure signal, open source and provide exactly zero guarantees of accuracy and validity. Use at your own risk. All data sourced from a combination of glassnode.com, coinmetrics.io and dcrdata.
For more information, please contact @_checkmatey_ or visit https://www.readyset.vision/landing/plans/214719 for the On-chain Jedi Masterclass Series to learn about how each metric is developed, applied and deployed for edge.
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Comparison between @100TrillionUSD and Checkmate's S2F Models. PlanB's is taken from the original paper, Checkmate calculates log-log regression to Market Cap on every daily closing price.
As per S2F Valuation model adjusted to present as coin price.
Picking tops and bottoms using the long term 2yr Moving Average after @PositiveCrypto. Chart is supplemented with high conviction bottom/accumulation 128W and 200W moving averages.
Forward Looking Targets of the market top assuming current ATH is the bear market floor
Oscillator presenting 30-day returns for Bitcoin as a measure of overheated or undervalued
Rolling Quarterly 50% Retracement (USD) for simple short-term bull / bear signal
Momentum oscillator for mid-term swing trades
Momentum oscillator for long term trades
Calculate profits realised as a % of current market cap daily
Calculate profits realised over as a % of current market cap Monthly
Calculate profits realised as a % of current market cap Quarterly
Probability of spent output age brackets based on historical occurence
Capturing the macro HODLing and spending behaviour in one powerful oscillator.
Bitcoin Liveliness and Realised Price-to-Liveliness Ratio for macro HODLing and Spending Behaviour.
Identifying periods of high and low spending behaviour using multiple binary liveliness techniques.
Ratio of valuation to on-chain activity to assess network utilisation.
Ratio of valuation to on-chain activity adjusted for free-float supply
Ratio Market Cap, Realised Cap and Cumulative USD Settled to total Blockchain size. This measures 'value density' of the chain.
Log-Log regression models considered for on-chain activity to estimate 'fair value'. Model considers Transaction Counts, Transaction Volume (USD) and Active Addresses.
Metcalfe Law models as per Valuation adjusted by supply to present equivalent pricing levels.
Inflows and outflows of BTC out of exchanges (as estimated by Coinmetrics Community Data).
Mapping out the Old (> 6m) and Young Coins as a proportion of circulating supply.
Circulating, Free-Float, 1yr Active and Miner Supply as a proportion of circulating supply.
Proportion of circulating supply categorised by address holding volume.
Proportion of addresses categorised by DCR coin holdings.
Cyclical support and resistance based on Fibbonacci multiples of the 350DMA. Metric originally presented by @PositiveCrypto.
Zoomed in version of the Golden Ratio Multipler by @PositiveCrypto
Simple cycle metric showing bull-bear bias based on the 50-200-day MA cross. Includes additional salt for fiat maximalists showing mass debasement in sats per dollar.
Calculate profits realised as a % of current market cap daily
Cumulative BTC cashflows for seeking supply-side income stress and bottom formation
Pricing levels in BTC for cumulative network supply-side cashflows
Cumulative BTC cashflows for seeking supply-side income stress and bottom formation
Pricing levels in BTC for cumulative network supply-side cashflows
Plotting out proportion of staking rewards earned in various USD price bands.
Plotting out proportion of staking rewards earned in various BTC price bands.
Plotting out proportion of mining rewards earned in various USD price bands.
Plotting out proportion of mining rewards earned in various BTC price bands.
Ratio Market Cap, Realised Cap and Cumulative USD Settled to total Blockchain size. This measures 'value density' of the chain.
Presents the estimated staking reward in DCR for owners of 1 to 5x tickets alongside estimated future ticket prices.
Presents the estimated monthly staking reward in USD for a single ticket for a set of DCR/USD price assumptions.
Proportion of circulating supply categorised by address holding volume.
Calculates the idealised supply dilution of stakers and premine participants assuming perfect and persistent staking (i.e. maximum plausible premine holdings).
Proportion of addresses categorised by DCR coin holdings.
Tracking total inflows, outflows and balance of DCR Treasury Block Rewards
Compares the value of the treasury to ticket price as a measure of 'value governed per vote'
30-Day Sum of USD net inflow/outflows to the Decred Treasury
90-Day Sum of USD net inflow/outflows to the Decred Treasury
Comparing treasury balance in USD vs multiples of lifetime cumulative spend
Comparing max monthly spend rate to present Treasury balance + Future inflows to estimate runway.
Comparing transaction counts against proportion of 2050 mined supply
Comparing BTC, DCR and XMR valuation to coin supply age.
Comparing BTC, DCR and XMR valuation to protocol lifespan.
Comparing XMR, XHV valuation to protocol lifespan.
Comparing XMR, XHV price to protocol lifespan.
Comparing transaction volumesn-chain and to exchanges.
A detailed study into unforgeable costliness, blockchain security and transaction finality assurances provided by Decred and Bitcoin.
Research PaperDemonstrating the exponential benefits to blockchain security offered by Hybrid PoW/PoS Consensus.
Model A: Daily block reward as a proxy for daily attack cost (excludes ticket and ASIC CAPEX).
Taking the ratio between Decred and Bitcoin security under various attack assumptions to compare finality.
Compare the total unforgeable costliness of Decred and Bitcoin over history (cumulative security spend).
Model B: Daily block reward as a proxy for daily attack cost (includes ticket CAPEX, Not ASICs).
Compare cumulative security spend to top PoW coins (Model A, excludes PoW and PoS CAPEX).
Miners: Comparing the fee ratio and long term security viability for Bitcoin and Decred .
Users: Cumulative USD value settled onchain (denominated both in USD and native units).
Users: Presents the daily and cumulative transaction counts for Decred against protocol age (days since genesis).
Miners: Cumulative PoW miner income from block-subsity and fees.
Users: Presents the daily native units settled onchain in regular and ticket transactions.
Users: Presents Median + Mean transaction size denominated in native units against protocol age (days since genesis).
Miners: Presents logarithmic growth of proof-of-work mining hashrate + difficulty.