Bitcoin Metrics
Magic Lines
Simple but powerful pricing models for the Corn! Don't underestimate them.Stock-to-Flow Models (Valuation)
Comparison between @100TrillionUSD and Checkmate's S2F Models. PlanB's is taken from the original paper, Checkmate calculates log-log regression to Market Cap on every daily closing price.
Stock-to-Flow Models (Pricing)
As per S2F Valuation model adjusted to present as coin price.
Investor Tool
Picking tops and bottoms using the long term 2yr Moving Average after @PositiveCrypto. Chart is supplemented with high conviction bottom/accumulation 128W and 200W moving averages.
Mayer Multiple (By Block Height)
Pricing model and oscillator derived from the 200-DMA
Realised Value
Tracking aggregate market cost basis, profit + loss.Market-Realised Gradient Oscillator (140-day)
Momentum oscillator for long term trades
Spent Output Age Histogram
Probability of spent output age brackets based on historical occurence
Mining Metrics + Supply Stress
Tracking opportunities in miner stress, income and block-timesPerformance Metrics
Tracking perfrormance and settlement metrics for Bitcoin.NVT + RVT Ratios Adjusted for Free Float Supply
Ratio of valuation to on-chain activity adjusted for free-float supply
Value Stored per byte
Ratio Market Cap, Realised Cap and Cumulative USD Settled to total Blockchain size. This measures 'value density' of the chain.
Metcalfe's Law Models
(Valuation)
Log-Log regression models considered for on-chain activity to estimate 'fair value'. Model considers Transaction Counts, Transaction Volume (USD) and Active Addresses.
Metcalfe's Law Models
(Pricing)
Metcalfe Law models as per Valuation adjusted by supply to present equivalent pricing levels.
Cycle Metrics
Following the cyclical behaviour of the Bitcoin market.Golden Ratio Multipler
(Full History)
Cyclical support and resistance based on Fibbonacci multiples of the 350DMA. Metric originally presented by @PositiveCrypto.
Golden Ratio Multipler
(Recent History)
Zoomed in version of the Golden Ratio Multipler by @PositiveCrypto
Golden Cross Bull-Bear
(+ Sats per Dolla!)
Simple cycle metric showing bull-bear bias based on the 50-200-day MA cross. Includes additional salt for fiat maximalists showing mass debasement in sats per dollar.
Decred Metrics
Fair Value Models
Estimating a fair value for atomsRealised Value
Psychological mean and recency bias for Cred-HeadsBlock Subsidy Models
Aggregate income stress levels for miners, stakers and contractorsBlock Subsidy Model A
(USD, Valuation)
Cumulative BTC cashflows for seeking supply-side income stress and bottom formation
Block Subsidy Model B
(USD, Pricing)
Pricing levels in BTC for cumulative network supply-side cashflows
Block Subsidy Model C
(BTC, Valuation)
Cumulative BTC cashflows for seeking supply-side income stress and bottom formation
Block Subsidy Model D
(BTC, Pricing)
Pricing levels in BTC for cumulative network supply-side cashflows
Mining Metrics
Assessing stress in the Decred mining marketTicket Metrics
Stakeholders are bullish...but how bullish!?Performance Metrics
How is Decred performing under the hood?Value Stored per byte
Ratio Market Cap, Realised Cap and Cumulative USD Settled to total Blockchain size. This measures 'value density' of the chain.
Staking ROI in DCR
Presents the estimated staking reward in DCR for owners of 1 to 5x tickets alongside estimated future ticket prices.
Staking ROI in USD
Presents the estimated monthly staking reward in USD for a single ticket for a set of DCR/USD price assumptions.
Supply Dilution
Calculates the idealised supply dilution of stakers and premine participants assuming perfect and persistent staking (i.e. maximum plausible premine holdings).
Monero Metrics
Cyclical Patterns
Well, thats the thing with a private chain...you can't see anything!Transaction Counts vs
Coin Age
Comparing transaction counts against proportion of 2050 mined supply
Price Cycle Comparison
(vs Supply Age)
Comparing XMR, DCR and XMR valuation to coin supply age.
Price Cycle Comparison
(vs Protocol Age)
Comparing XMR, DCR and XMR valuation to protocol lifespan.
Horizen Metrics
Performance Metrics
Overall performance of the Horizen blockchainTransaction and Exchange Volumes
Comparing transaction volumesn-chain and to exchanges.
Research Papers
Decred: Unforgeably Scarce, Hyper-Secure
Sound Money means Security, Finality and Scarcity.
Decred: Unforgeably Scarce, Hyper-Secure
A detailed study into unforgeable costliness, blockchain security and transaction finality assurances provided by Decred and Bitcoin.
Research PaperDecred Security Curve
Demonstrating the exponential benefits to blockchain security offered by Hybrid PoW/PoS Consensus.
Daily Cost to Attack (A)
Model A: Daily block reward as a proxy for daily attack cost (excludes ticket and ASIC CAPEX).
Finality Ratio
Taking the ratio between Decred and Bitcoin security under various attack assumptions to compare finality.
Unforgeable Costliness
Compare the total unforgeable costliness of Decred and Bitcoin over history (cumulative security spend).
Daily Cost to Attack (B)
Model B: Daily block reward as a proxy for daily attack cost (includes ticket CAPEX, Not ASICs).
Compare Unforgeable Costliness
Compare cumulative security spend to top PoW coins (Model A, excludes PoW and PoS CAPEX).
Decred: The Resilient Stronghold
A detailed audit of Decred onchain performance.
Block Reward Fee Ratio
Miners: Comparing the fee ratio and long term security viability for Bitcoin and Decred .
Cumulative Settled Value (USD)
Users: Cumulative USD value settled onchain (denominated both in USD and native units).
Transaction Counts
Users: Presents the daily and cumulative transaction counts for Decred against protocol age (days since genesis).
Miner Cumulative Income
Miners: Cumulative PoW miner income from block-subsity and fees.
Daily Native Units Settled (DCR)
Users: Presents the daily native units settled onchain in regular and ticket transactions.
Mean + Median Tx Size
Users: Presents Median + Mean transaction size denominated in native units against protocol age (days since genesis).
Miner Hashrate Growth
Miners: Presents logarithmic growth of proof-of-work mining hashrate + difficulty.