Bitcoin Metrics
Magic Lines
Simple but powerful pricing models for the Corn! Don't underestimate them.Stock-to-Flow Models (Valuation)
Comparison between @100TrillionUSD and Checkmate's S2F Models. PlanB's is taken from the original paper, Checkmate calculates log-log regression to Market Cap on every daily closing price.
Stock-to-Flow Models (Pricing)
As per S2F Valuation model adjusted to present as coin price.
Investor Tool
Picking tops and bottoms using the long term 2yr Moving Average after @PositiveCrypto. Chart is supplemented with high conviction bottom/accumulation 128W and 200W moving averages.
Price Drawdown Models
Forward Looking Targets of the market top assuming current ATH is the bear market floor
Monthly Returns
Oscillator presenting 30-day returns for Bitcoin as a measure of overheated or undervalued
Quarterly Retrace
Rolling Quarterly 50% Retracement (USD) for simple short-term bull / bear signal
Realised Value
Tracking aggregate market cost basis, profit + loss.Market-Realised Gradient Oscillator (28-day)
Momentum oscillator for mid-term swing trades
Market-Realised Gradient Oscillator (140-day)
Momentum oscillator for long term trades
Realised Profits (Daily)
Calculate profits realised as a % of current market cap daily
Realised Profits (Monthly)
Calculate profits realised over as a % of current market cap Monthly
Realised Profits (Quarterly)
Calculate profits realised as a % of current market cap Quarterly
Spent Output Age Histogram
Probability of spent output age brackets based on historical occurence
Mining Metrics + Supply Stress
Tracking opportunities in miner stress, income and block-timesPerformance Metrics
Tracking perfrormance and settlement metrics for Bitcoin.NVT + RVT Ratios
Ratio of valuation to on-chain activity to assess network utilisation.
NVT + RVT Ratios Adjusted for Free Float Supply
Ratio of valuation to on-chain activity adjusted for free-float supply
Value Stored per byte
Ratio Market Cap, Realised Cap and Cumulative USD Settled to total Blockchain size. This measures 'value density' of the chain.
Metcalfe's Law Models
(Valuation)
Log-Log regression models considered for on-chain activity to estimate 'fair value'. Model considers Transaction Counts, Transaction Volume (USD) and Active Addresses.
Metcalfe's Law Models
(Pricing)
Metcalfe Law models as per Valuation adjusted by supply to present equivalent pricing levels.
Supply Distribution Metrics
Analysis related to Bitcoin Supply, Coin Age and Address wealth distributionsExchange Flows
Inflows and outflows of BTC out of exchanges (as estimated by Coinmetrics Community Data).
Supply Distribution Bands
(% of Supply)
Proportion of circulating supply categorised by address holding volume.
Address Count Bands
(% of Supply)
Proportion of addresses categorised by DCR coin holdings.
Cycle Metrics
Following the cyclical behaviour of the Bitcoin market.Golden Ratio Multipler
(Full History)
Cyclical support and resistance based on Fibbonacci multiples of the 350DMA. Metric originally presented by @PositiveCrypto.
Golden Ratio Multipler
(Recent History)
Zoomed in version of the Golden Ratio Multipler by @PositiveCrypto
Golden Cross Bull-Bear
(+ Sats per Dolla!)
Simple cycle metric showing bull-bear bias based on the 50-200-day MA cross. Includes additional salt for fiat maximalists showing mass debasement in sats per dollar.
Decred Metrics
Fair Value Models
Estimating a fair value for atomsRealised Value
Psychological mean and recency bias for Cred-HeadsRealised Profits (Daily)
Calculate profits realised as a % of current market cap daily
Block Subsidy Models
Aggregate income stress levels for miners, stakers and contractorsBlock Subsidy Model A
(USD, Valuation)
Cumulative BTC cashflows for seeking supply-side income stress and bottom formation
Block Subsidy Model B
(USD, Pricing)
Pricing levels in BTC for cumulative network supply-side cashflows
Block Subsidy Model C
(BTC, Valuation)
Cumulative BTC cashflows for seeking supply-side income stress and bottom formation
Block Subsidy Model D
(BTC, Pricing)
Pricing levels in BTC for cumulative network supply-side cashflows
Staking VPVR (USD)
Plotting out proportion of staking rewards earned in various USD price bands.
Staking VPVR (BTC)
Plotting out proportion of staking rewards earned in various BTC price bands.
Mining VPVR (USD)
Plotting out proportion of mining rewards earned in various USD price bands.
Mining VPVR (BTC)
Plotting out proportion of mining rewards earned in various BTC price bands.
Mining Metrics
Assessing stress in the Decred mining marketTicket Metrics
Stakeholders are bullish...but how bullish!?Performance Metrics
How is Decred performing under the hood?Value Stored per byte
Ratio Market Cap, Realised Cap and Cumulative USD Settled to total Blockchain size. This measures 'value density' of the chain.
Staking ROI in DCR
Presents the estimated staking reward in DCR for owners of 1 to 5x tickets alongside estimated future ticket prices.
Staking ROI in USD
Presents the estimated monthly staking reward in USD for a single ticket for a set of DCR/USD price assumptions.
Supply Distribution Metrics
Analysis related to Decred Supply, Coin Age and Address wealth distributionsSupply Distribution Bands
(% of Supply)
Proportion of circulating supply categorised by address holding volume.
Ideal Supply Dilution
Calculates the idealised supply dilution of stakers and premine participants assuming perfect and persistent staking (i.e. maximum plausible premine holdings).
Address Count Bands
(% of Supply)
Proportion of addresses categorised by DCR coin holdings.
Treasury Metrics
Analysis related to the Decred Treasury spending, runway and sustainabilityTreasury Balances (DCR)
Tracking total inflows, outflows and balance of DCR Treasury Block Rewards
Treasury Vote Power
Compares the value of the treasury to ticket price as a measure of 'value governed per vote'
Treasury Net-Flow (30-Day)
30-Day Sum of USD net inflow/outflows to the Decred Treasury
Treasury Net-Flow (90-Day)
90-Day Sum of USD net inflow/outflows to the Decred Treasury
Treasury Return on Investment
Comparing treasury balance in USD vs multiples of lifetime cumulative spend
Treasury Remaining Runway (Months)
Comparing max monthly spend rate to present Treasury balance + Future inflows to estimate runway.
Monero Metrics
Cyclical Patterns
Well, thats the thing with a private chain...you can't see anything!Transaction Counts vs
Coin Age
Comparing transaction counts against proportion of 2050 mined supply
Price Cycle Comparison
(vs Supply Age)
Comparing BTC, DCR and XMR valuation to coin supply age.
Price Cycle Comparison
(vs Protocol Age)
Comparing BTC, DCR and XMR valuation to protocol lifespan.
Haven Protocol Metrics
Cyclical Patterns
Comparing the growth of Haven to Monero at various protocol ages!Monero XMR vs Haven XHV
(Valuation vs Protocol Age)
Comparing XMR, XHV valuation to protocol lifespan.
Monero XMR vs Haven XHV
(Pricing vs Protocol Age)
Comparing XMR, XHV price to protocol lifespan.
Horizen Metrics
Performance Metrics
Overall performance of the Horizen blockchainTransaction and Exchange Volumes
Comparing transaction volumesn-chain and to exchanges.
Research Papers
Decred: Unforgeably Scarce, Hyper-Secure
Sound Money means Security, Finality and Scarcity.
Decred: Unforgeably Scarce, Hyper-Secure
A detailed study into unforgeable costliness, blockchain security and transaction finality assurances provided by Decred and Bitcoin.
Research PaperDecred Security Curve
Demonstrating the exponential benefits to blockchain security offered by Hybrid PoW/PoS Consensus.
Daily Cost to Attack (A)
Model A: Daily block reward as a proxy for daily attack cost (excludes ticket and ASIC CAPEX).
Finality Ratio
Taking the ratio between Decred and Bitcoin security under various attack assumptions to compare finality.
Unforgeable Costliness
Compare the total unforgeable costliness of Decred and Bitcoin over history (cumulative security spend).
Daily Cost to Attack (B)
Model B: Daily block reward as a proxy for daily attack cost (includes ticket CAPEX, Not ASICs).
Compare Unforgeable Costliness
Compare cumulative security spend to top PoW coins (Model A, excludes PoW and PoS CAPEX).
Decred: The Resilient Stronghold
A detailed audit of Decred onchain performance.
Block Reward Fee Ratio
Miners: Comparing the fee ratio and long term security viability for Bitcoin and Decred .
Cumulative Settled Value (USD)
Users: Cumulative USD value settled onchain (denominated both in USD and native units).
Transaction Counts
Users: Presents the daily and cumulative transaction counts for Decred against protocol age (days since genesis).
Miner Cumulative Income
Miners: Cumulative PoW miner income from block-subsity and fees.
Daily Native Units Settled (DCR)
Users: Presents the daily native units settled onchain in regular and ticket transactions.
Mean + Median Tx Size
Users: Presents Median + Mean transaction size denominated in native units against protocol age (days since genesis).
Miner Hashrate Growth
Miners: Presents logarithmic growth of proof-of-work mining hashrate + difficulty.